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Ezulwini United vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Ezulwini United
Ezulwini United
FT
2 – 2
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
11/24/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ezulwini United36%
×Draw28%
Moneni Pirates36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ezulwini United
1.17
Moneni Pirates
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ezulwini United
0.98
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Ezulwini United
1.27
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Ezulwini United+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ezulwini United ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ezulwini United or draw
64%
Ezulwini United or Moneni Pirates
72%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
64%

Winning margin

Ezulwini United wins by 2+
15%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ezulwini United 1+ goals
69%
Ezulwini United 2+ goals
33%
Ezulwini United 3+ goals
11%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
69%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
32%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ezulwini United (draw refunded)
50%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ezulwini United at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ezulwini United attack 0.98 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Ezulwini United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ezulwini United scores more
36%
level
28%
Moneni Pirates scores more
36%

Ezulwini United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ezulwini United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ezulwini United vs Moneni Pirates

Ezulwini United and Moneni Pirates drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.