Express 1–1 Mbarara City: Result & Stats

Express

FT

1 – 1

Mbarara City

4/17/2021

Premier League · Round 18Mutesa II Wankulukuku Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Express52%

×Draw26%

Mbarara City22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExpressExpected goals in this matchMbarara City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.86

Express

1.50

Mbarara City

0.86

Express creates 74% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 86 away

1.40

creates per match

0.72

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Express

1.40

Mbarara City

0.72

allows per match

Express

1.00

Mbarara City

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Express+0.00on par

Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Mbarara City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Express or draw

78%

Express or Mbarara City

74%

Draw or Mbarara City

48%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+

27%

Mbarara City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals

78%

Express 2+ goals

44%

Express 3+ goals

19%

Mbarara City 1+ goals

58%

Mbarara City 2+ goals

21%

Mbarara City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)

71%

Mbarara City (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.40 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Express defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Express scores more

52%

level

26%

Mbarara City scores more

22%

Express at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff