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Express vs KCCA — Premier League 2019

Express
Express
FT
1 – 1
KCCA
KCCA
E. Kambale 45+1'
C. Lwanga 86'
2/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Mutesa II Wankulukuku Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Express37%
×Draw29%
KCCA34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Express
1.17
KCCA
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 100 away

creates per match

Express
1.40
KCCA
1.20

allows per match

Express
1.00
KCCA
0.93

finishing

Express+0.00on par
KCCA+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

KCCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Express or draw
66%
Express or KCCA
71%
Draw or KCCA
63%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+
16%
KCCA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals
69%
Express 2+ goals
33%
Express 3+ goals
11%
KCCA 1+ goals
67%
KCCA 2+ goals
30%
KCCA 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)
52%
KCCA (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

KCCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.40 + KCCA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

KCCA attack 1.20 + Express defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Express scores more
37%
level
29%
KCCA scores more
34%

Express at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
E. Kambale
46'
M. Yaya Kakooza← M. Yaya Kakooza
46'
M. Mutyaba← M. Mutyaba
56'
J. Balinya← J. Balinya
56'
K. Keziron← A. S. Kigozi
59'
F. Kalanda← F. Kalanda
69'
81'
D. Kato← D. Kato
86'
C. Lwanga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Express 1–1 KCCA

Express and KCCA drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 17, 2021.

Goals: E. Kambale (45+1'), C. Lwanga (86').

The match was played at Mutesa II Wankulukuku Stadium in Kampala.