Express 2–1 Bright Stars: Result & Stats

Express

FT

2 – 1

Bright Stars

12/12/2020

Premier League · Round 3Mutesa II Wankulukuku Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Express48%

×Draw27%

Bright Stars25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExpressExpected goals in this matchBright Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.93

Express

1.40

Bright Stars

0.93

Express creates 51% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 83 away

1.40

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Express

1.40

Bright Stars

0.86

allows per match

Express

1.00

Bright Stars

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Express+0.00on par

Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Express ↓

Bright Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Express or draw

75%

Express or Bright Stars

73%

Draw or Bright Stars

52%

Winning margin

Express wins by 2+

23%

Bright Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Express 1+ goals

75%

Express 2+ goals

41%

Express 3+ goals

17%

Bright Stars 1+ goals

61%

Bright Stars 2+ goals

24%

Bright Stars 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Express (draw refunded)

66%

Bright Stars (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Express at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Express attack 1.40 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + Express defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Express scores more

48%

level

27%

Bright Stars scores more

25%

Express at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff