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Exeter City vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
Preview
14:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
4/3/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 39St James Park
Big match
43%
Exeter City
model favours
43%25%31%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Exeter City43%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.49
Swindon Town
1.23

Exeter City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 139 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.53
Swindon Town
1.49

allows per match

Exeter City
0.96
Swindon Town
1.45

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
69%
Exeter City or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
57%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
21%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
77%
Exeter City 2+ goals
44%
Exeter City 3+ goals
19%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
71%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
35%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
58%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Exeter City scores more
43%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
31%

Exeter City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Exeter City
Balanced
Swindon Town
Balanced
51%Possession53%
63%Pass accuracyBiggest gap72%
12.1Shots12.6
—xG1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Exeter CitySwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Exeter City
3
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 90%
2–11–03–12–14–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
LLDDD
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Exeter City host Swindon Town

April 3, 2027: Exeter City take on Swindon Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Exeter City host Swindon Town at St James Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.