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Exeter City vs Swindon Town — League #46 2026

Exeter City
Exeter City
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
11/8/2016League #46League #46 · Group Stage - 8St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Exeter City38%
×Draw28%
Swindon Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.25
Swindon Town
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.00
Swindon Town
1.00

allows per match

Exeter City
1.33
Swindon Town
1.50

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
66%
Exeter City or Swindon Town
72%
Draw or Swindon Town
62%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
17%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
71%
Exeter City 2+ goals
36%
Exeter City 3+ goals
13%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
69%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
33%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
53%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.00 + Swindon Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Swindon Town attack 1.00 + Exeter City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Exeter City scores more
38%
level
28%
Swindon Town scores more
34%

Exeter City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Exeter City vs Swindon Town

Exeter City and Swindon Town drew 1-1 in League #46 on November 8, 2016.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Exeter, Devon.