Exeter City 1–2 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hartlepool

L. McAlinden 31'

B. Paynter 75'

M. Woods 74'

8/13/2016

League Two · Round 2St. James' Park (Exeter, Devon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Exeter City53%

×Draw24%

Hartlepool23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.00

Exeter City

1.66

Hartlepool

1.00

Exeter City creates 66% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 81 away

1.53

creates per match

1.05

0.96

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Hartlepool

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

77%

Exeter City or Hartlepool

76%

Draw or Hartlepool

47%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

28%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

81%

Exeter City 2+ goals

49%

Exeter City 3+ goals

23%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

63%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

26%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

70%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Exeter City scores more

53%

level

24%

Hartlepool scores more

23%

Exeter City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

L. McAlinden↳ J. Moore-Taylor

46'

M. Bates← R. Jones

46'

P. Amond← L. Hawkins

70'

A. Byrne← L. McAlinden

74'

75'

86'

86'

89'

Exeter

Hartlepool

1

Carson

5

▼

2

22

3

14

⚽

Woods

4

Featherst

18

▼

Hawkins

7

Thomas

15

Alessandr

10

⚽

▼

Paynter

1

Olejnik

3

▼

Woodman

31

Sweeney

15

A

6

4

25

2

▼

McCready

8

Simpson

19

⚽

▼

McAlinden

14

Watkins

Manager: P. Tisdale

70'▲A. Byrne←▼L. McAlinden

86'▲M. Jay←▼C. Woodman

89'▲K. Egan←▼T. McCready

Exeter City substitutes

24Byrne20Jay36Egan23Riley-Lowe26Ampadu30Pym38Storey

Manager: C. Hignett

46'▲M. Bates←▼R. Jones

46'▲P. Amond←▼L. Hawkins

86'▲R. Oates←▼B. Paynter

Hartlepool substitutes

6Bates9Amond11Oates13Bartlett17Deverdics19Richards28Laurent