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Excelsior '31 vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Excelsior '31
Excelsior '31
CANC
12:30
VVOG
VVOG
10/24/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 8Sportpark De Koerbelt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Excelsior '3149%
×Draw22%
VVOG29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior '31
2.03
VVOG
1.54

Excelsior '31 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 46 away

creates per match

Excelsior '31
1.65
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

Excelsior '31
1.73
VVOG
2.41

finishing

Excelsior '31+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior '31 ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Excelsior '31 or draw
71%
Excelsior '31 or VVOG
78%
Draw or VVOG
51%

Winning margin

Excelsior '31 wins by 2+
28%
VVOG wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Excelsior '31 1+ goals
87%
Excelsior '31 2+ goals
60%
Excelsior '31 3+ goals
33%
VVOG 1+ goals
79%
VVOG 2+ goals
45%
VVOG 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Excelsior '31 (draw refunded)
62%
VVOG (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior '31 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.73 · 83 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior '31 attack 1.65 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.03

VVOG attack 1.35 + Excelsior '31 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Excelsior '31 scores more
49%
level
22%
VVOG scores more
29%

Excelsior '31 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Excelsior '31 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Excelsior '31 face VVOG (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with Excelsior '31 hosting VVOG. Match starts October 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Excelsior '31 host VVOG at Sportpark De Koerbelt.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.