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EVV vs OSS '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

EVV
EVV
FT
0 – 1
OSS '20
OSS '20
12/1/2019Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 14Sportpark In de Bandert (EVV) (Echt-Susteren)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

EVV36%
×Draw25%
OSS '2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EVV
1.42
OSS '20
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 65 away

creates per match

EVV
1.19
OSS '20
1.48

allows per match

EVV
1.48
OSS '20
1.66

finishing

EVV+0.00on par
OSS '20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EVV ↓

OSS '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

EVV or draw
61%
EVV or OSS '20
75%
Draw or OSS '20
64%

Winning margin

EVV wins by 2+
17%
OSS '20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

EVV 1+ goals
76%
EVV 2+ goals
41%
EVV 3+ goals
17%
OSS '20 1+ goals
77%
OSS '20 2+ goals
43%
OSS '20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

EVV (draw refunded)
48%
OSS '20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EVV at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

OSS '20 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EVV attack 1.19 + OSS '20 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

OSS '20 attack 1.48 + EVV defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

EVV scores more
36%
level
25%
OSS '20 scores more
39%

OSS '20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "OSS '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EVV vs OSS '20

OSS '20 beat EVV 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark In de Bandert (EVV) (Echt-Susteren).