Everton W 2–2 Tottenham Hotspur W: Result & Stats

Everton W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Tottenham Hotspur W

J. Vanhaevermaet 15'

S. Holmgaard 10'

B. England 48'

D. Spence 45'

5/4/2024

FA WSL · Round 21Walton Hall Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Everton W39%

×Draw23%

Tottenham Hotspur W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton WExpected goals in this matchTottenham Hotspur W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.58

Everton W

1.63

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 71 away

1.24

creates per match

1.37

1.79

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Everton W

1.24

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.37

allows per match

Everton W

1.79

Tottenham Hotspur W

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton W+0.00on par

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton W ↓

Tottenham Hotspur W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Everton W or draw

63%

Everton W or Tottenham Hotspur W

77%

Draw or Tottenham Hotspur W

61%

Winning margin

Everton W wins by 2+

20%

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Everton W 1+ goals

80%

Everton W 2+ goals

48%

Everton W 3+ goals

22%

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals

79%

Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals

47%

Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Everton W (draw refunded)

51%

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.79 · 82 matches

Tottenham Hotspur W away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.01 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton W attack 1.24 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.37 + Everton W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Everton W scores more

39%

level

23%

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more

37%

Everton W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Everton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Brosnan

Everton W · G

9.0

Match Events

10'

S. Holmgaard↳ C. Wheeler

15'

J. Vanhaevermaet

39'

Elise Isolde Stenevik

42'

Drew Spence

45'

D. Spence↳ E. Summanen

46'

M. Piemonte← K. Holmgaard

48'

B. England↳ D. Spence

53'

54'

55'

65'

66'

M. Thomas← G. Clinton

66'

Wang Shuang← M. Vinberg

78'

C. Bizet Ildhusøy← J. Naz

86'

E. Dale← K. Kühl

89'

Molly Bartrip

90'

I. Hobson← K. Snoeijs

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonTottenham

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots26

4Corners6

14Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots26

3On Target13

4Off Target11

2Blocked2

7Inside Box19

2Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

452Total Passes512

365Accurate Passes431

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

11Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

FA WSL: Everton W 2–2 Tottenham Hotspur W

Everton W and Tottenham Hotspur W drew 2-2 in FA WSL on May 4, 2024.

Goals: S. Holmgaard (10'), J. Vanhaevermaet (15'), D. Spence (45'), B. England (48').

Tottenham Hotspur W controlled possession (53%) and registered 26 shots to 9.

The match was played at Walton Hall Park in Liverpool.

Everton W vs Tottenham Hotspur W — FA WSL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FA WSL: Everton W 2–2 Tottenham Hotspur W