Everton 3–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crystal Palace

D. McNeil 84'

A. Gordon 63'

D. Calvert-Lewin 11'

10/22/2022

Premier League · Round 13Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Everton37%

×Draw27%

Crystal Palace36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Everton

1.27

Crystal Palace

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

1.29

creates per match

1.21

1.28

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Everton

1.28

Crystal Palace

1.26

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Everton-0.03on par

Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Everton or draw

64%

Everton or Crystal Palace

73%

Draw or Crystal Palace

63%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

16%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

72%

Everton 2+ goals

36%

Everton 3+ goals

14%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

71%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

36%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

51%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Everton scores more

37%

level

27%

Crystal Palace scores more

36%

Everton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Iwobi

Everton · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

D. Calvert-Lewin↳ A. Iwobi

62'

J. Mateta← M. Olise

62'

J. Schlupp← L. Milivojević

63'

A. Gordon

64'

Anthony GordonGoal confirmed

68'

68'

68'

68'

70'

73'

75'

78'

N. Maupay← D. Calvert-Lewin

78'

80'

84'

86'

86'

A. Doucouré← A. Gordon

90+2'

James Garner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonCrystal

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots9

3Corners4

16Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots9

6On Target2

1Off Target4

2Blocked3

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

382Total Passes456

313Accurate Passes387

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2