Everton 3–2 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Everton

1.27

Crystal Palace

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 35 away

1.28

creates per match

1.21

1.29

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Everton

1.28

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Everton

1.29

Crystal Palace

1.26

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Everton-0.07on par

Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Everton or draw

64%

Everton or Crystal Palace

73%

Draw or Crystal Palace

63%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

16%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

72%

Everton 2+ goals

36%

Everton 3+ goals

14%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

71%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

36%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

51%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.28 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Everton defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Everton scores more

37%

level

27%

Crystal Palace scores more

36%

Everton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Richarlison

Everton · F

7.7

Match Events

21'

J. Mateta↳ E. Eze

32'

34'

36'

46'

54'

57'

L. Milivojević← W. Hughes

61'

D. Gray← A. Gordon

67'

Michael Keane

69'

Wilfried Zaha

74'

C. Gallagher← J. Schlupp

75'

Richarlison

81'

C. Benteke← J. Mateta

82'

Abdoulaye Doucouré

85'

D. Calvert-Lewin↳ D. Gray

90+1'

J. Kenny← Richarlison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonCrystal

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots7

4Corners5

9Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target5

4Off Target2

2Blocked0

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

340Total Passes460

240Accurate Passes358

71%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3