Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Everton vs Crystal Palace — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
R. Lukaku 35'
C. Benteke 50'
9/30/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Everton37%
×Draw27%
Crystal Palace36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.27
Crystal Palace
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

creates per match

Everton
1.29
Crystal Palace
1.21

allows per match

Everton
1.28
Crystal Palace
1.26

finishing

Everton-0.03on par
Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Crystal Palace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Everton or draw
64%
Everton or Crystal Palace
73%
Draw or Crystal Palace
63%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
16%
Crystal Palace wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
72%
Everton 2+ goals
36%
Everton 3+ goals
14%
Crystal Palace 1+ goals
71%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
36%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
51%
Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Everton scores more
37%
level
27%
Crystal Palace scores more
36%

Everton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. WardCrystal PalaceCrystal Palace · D
8.0

Match Events

16'
Bryan Oviedo
26'
Jason Puncheon
35'
R. Lukaku
45'
James Tomkins
50'
C. Benteke↳ J. Ward
52'
Christian Benteke
67'
Andros Townsend
68'
Gareth Barry
77'
K. Mirallas← R. Barkley
78'
Idrissa Gueye
79'
Y. Cabaye← J. McArthur
81'
Ramiro Funes Mori← B. Oviedo
88'
Yannick Bolasie
90'
Tom Cleverley
90+3'
Chung-Yong Lee← A. Townsend

Possession

56%Everton

Shots

13Everton

Pass accuracy

53%Everton

Statistics

EvertonCrystal
Overview
56%Possession44%
13Total Shots10
10Corners9
16Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots10
3On Target2
6Off Target2
4Blocked6
9Inside Box5
4Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
398Total Passes297
299Accurate Passes200
75%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls11
5Yellow Cards4
3Offsides1

Premier League: Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace

Everton and Crystal Palace drew 1-1 in Premier League on September 30, 2016.

Goals: R. Lukaku (35'), C. Benteke (50').

Everton controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.