Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Everton vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chelsea
Chelsea
3/17/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Everton37%
×Draw26%
Chelsea37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.38
Chelsea
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

creates per match

Everton
1.28
Chelsea
1.45

allows per match

Everton
1.29
Chelsea
1.48

finishing

Everton-0.07on par
Chelsea-0.01on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Everton or draw
63%
Everton or Chelsea
74%
Draw or Chelsea
63%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
17%
Chelsea wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
75%
Everton 2+ goals
40%
Everton 3+ goals
16%
Chelsea 1+ goals
75%
Chelsea 2+ goals
40%
Chelsea 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
50%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.28 + Chelsea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chelsea attack 1.45 + Everton defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Everton scores more
37%
level
26%
Chelsea scores more
37%

Everton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Everton 2–0 Chelsea

Everton beat Chelsea 2-0 in Premier League on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.