Everton 0–3 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Chelsea

Willian 86'

G. Cahill 79'

Pedro 66'

4/30/2017

Premier League · Round 35Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Everton37%

×Draw25%

Chelsea37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

Everton

1.39

Chelsea

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

1.29

creates per match

1.49

1.28

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Everton

1.28

Chelsea

1.49

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Everton-0.03on par

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Everton or draw

63%

Everton or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

63%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

17%

Chelsea wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

75%

Everton 2+ goals

40%

Everton 3+ goals

16%

Chelsea 1+ goals

75%

Chelsea 2+ goals

40%

Chelsea 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

50%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Everton scores more

37%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

37%

Everton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

G. Cahill

Chelsea · D

8.3

Match Events

35'

Gary Cahill

38'

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

40'

César Azpilicueta

56'

Diego Costa

58'

Enner Valencia

66'

Pedro↳ N. Matić

72'

A. Koné← E. Valencia

72'

K. Mirallas← D. Calvert-Lewin

75'

Eden Hazard

78'

Idrissa Gueye

79'

G. Cahill

82'

Fàbregas← Pedro

82'

N. Aké← David Luiz

85'

Willian← E. Hazard

86'

Willian↳ Fàbregas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonChelsea

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots11

2Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target5

7Off Target3

2Blocked3

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

423Total Passes426

332Accurate Passes340

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1