Everton 0–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Aston Villa

E. Buendía 81'

O. Watkins 63' (pen)

2/25/2023

Premier League · Round 25Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Everton42%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Everton

1.46

Aston Villa

1.23

Everton creates 19% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

1.31

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Aston Villa

1.16

allows per match

Everton

1.31

Aston Villa

1.64

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Everton-0.13scores less

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Everton or draw

68%

Everton or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

58%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

20%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

77%

Everton 2+ goals

43%

Everton 3+ goals

18%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

71%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

35%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

57%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 25 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Aston Villa attack 1.16 + Everton defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Everton scores more

42%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

32%

Everton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

T. Mings

Aston Villa · D

8.0

Match Events

2'

Amadou Onana

61'

E. Buendía← L. Digne

61'

Álex Moreno← L. Bailey

63'

O. WatkinsPenalty

70'

D. Gray← A. Iwobi

75'

Abdoulaye Doucouré

76'

E. Simms← N. Maupay

77'

Emiliano Martínez

81'

E. Buendía↳ J. McGinn

82'

T. Davies← A. Onana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonAston

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots9

1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.94

5Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target5

7Off Target4

3Blocked0

13Inside Box4

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

353Total Passes433

277Accurate Passes343

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0