Everton 1–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Aston Villa

D. Calvert-Lewin 19'

A. El Ghazi 80'

O. Watkins 13'

5/1/2021

Premier League · Round 34Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Everton43%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.21

Everton

1.46

Aston Villa

1.21

Everton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 32 away

1.29

creates per match

1.14

1.28

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Everton

1.28

Aston Villa

1.64

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Everton-0.03on par

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Everton or draw

69%

Everton or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

57%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

21%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

77%

Everton 2+ goals

43%

Everton 3+ goals

18%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

70%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

34%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

58%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Everton scores more

43%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

31%

Everton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Barkley

Aston Villa · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

O. Watkins

19'

D. Calvert-Lewin↳ L. Digne

41'

Douglas Luiz

70'

F. Delph← André Gomes

76'

Bernard← A. Iwobi

80'

A. El Ghazi↳ Bertrand Traoré

82'

J. King← G. Sigurðsson

88'

J. Ramsey← Bertrand Traoré

90'

Anwar El Ghazi

90+2'

K. Davis← A. El Ghazi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonAston

Overview

47%Possession53%

16Total Shots13

3Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots13

3On Target5

7Off Target5

6Blocked3

8Inside Box7

8Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

421Total Passes469

345Accurate Passes384

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2