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Europa Fc vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
Preview
15:00
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
5/23/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38
46%
Europa Fc
model favours
46%26%28%

Europa Fc and Real Madrid II have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Europa Fc46%
×Draw26%
Real Madrid II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
1.48
Real Madrid II
1.09

Europa Fc creates 36% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
1.68
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Europa Fc
1.21
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
72%
Europa Fc or Real Madrid II
74%
Draw or Real Madrid II
54%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
23%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
77%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
43%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
19%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
66%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
30%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
62%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 1.68 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Europa Fc defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Europa Fc scores more
46%
level
26%
Real Madrid II scores more
28%

Europa Fc at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Fc
DDWLD
II
LWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Europa Fc vs Real Madrid II — Match Preview

Europa Fc face Real Madrid II on May 23, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.