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Europa Fc vs Ibiza — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
Preview
15:00
Ibiza
Ibiza
3/28/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30
42%
Europa Fc
model favours
42%27%31%

Ibiza raise their game against the top half — 45% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Europa Fc42%
×Draw27%
Ibiza31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
1.33
Ibiza
1.11

Europa Fc creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
1.68
Ibiza
1.02

allows per match

Europa Fc
1.21
Ibiza
0.98

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Ibiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
69%
Europa Fc or Ibiza
73%
Draw or Ibiza
58%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
19%
Ibiza wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
74%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
38%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
15%
Ibiza 1+ goals
67%
Ibiza 2+ goals
30%
Ibiza 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
57%
Ibiza (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Ibiza away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 1.68 + Ibiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ibiza attack 1.02 + Europa Fc defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Europa Fc scores more
42%
level
27%
Ibiza scores more
31%

Europa Fc at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Fc
DDWLD
Ibiza
LWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Europa Fc host Ibiza

March 28, 2027: Europa Fc take on Ibiza in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.