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Europa Fc vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
Preview
16:00
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
12/20/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17
48%
Europa Fc
model favours
48%27%25%
1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Europa Fc48%
×Draw27%
Gimnastic25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
1.43
Gimnastic
0.96

Europa Fc creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
1.68
Gimnastic
0.72

allows per match

Europa Fc
1.21
Gimnastic
1.18

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
75%
Europa Fc or Gimnastic
73%
Draw or Gimnastic
52%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
23%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
76%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
42%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
17%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
62%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
25%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
65%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 1.68 + Gimnastic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.43

Gimnastic attack 0.72 + Europa Fc defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Europa Fc scores more
48%
level
27%
Gimnastic scores more
25%

Europa Fc at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Fc
DDWLD
Gimnastic
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Europa Fc vs Gimnastic — Match Preview

Europa Fc face Gimnastic on December 20, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.