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Europa Fc vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
Preview
16:00
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
11/8/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11
43%
Europa Fc
model favours
43%26%31%

Europa Fc win just 28% against the top half (vs 55% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Europa Fc43%
×Draw26%
Atlético Madrid II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
1.47
Atlético Madrid II
1.20

Europa Fc creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
1.68
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Europa Fc
1.21
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
69%
Europa Fc or Atlético Madrid II
74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
57%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
77%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
43%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
58%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 1.68 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.47

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Europa Fc defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Europa Fc scores more
43%
level
26%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
31%

Europa Fc at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Fc
DDWLD
II
LDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Europa Fc vs Atlético Madrid II — Match Preview

Europa Fc face Atlético Madrid II on November 8, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.