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ETSV Hamburg vs Paloma — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

ETSV Hamburg
ETSV Hamburg
Preview
18:30
Paloma
Paloma
3/19/2027Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 27
Big match
48%
ETSV Hamburg
model favours
48%21%31%

Top-of-the-table clash — ETSV Hamburg 3 vs Paloma 1

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ETSV Hamburg48%
×Draw21%
Paloma31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ETSV Hamburg
2.17
Paloma
1.72

ETSV Hamburg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 57 away

creates per match

ETSV Hamburg
2.43
Paloma
1.86

allows per match

ETSV Hamburg
1.57
Paloma
1.91

finishing

ETSV Hamburg+0.00on par
Paloma+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ETSV Hamburg ↓

Paloma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

ETSV Hamburg or draw
69%
ETSV Hamburg or Paloma
79%
Draw or Paloma
52%

Winning margin

ETSV Hamburg wins by 2+
28%
Paloma wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ETSV Hamburg 1+ goals
89%
ETSV Hamburg 2+ goals
64%
ETSV Hamburg 3+ goals
36%
Paloma 1+ goals
82%
Paloma 2+ goals
51%
Paloma 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

ETSV Hamburg (draw refunded)
61%
Paloma (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ETSV Hamburg at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Paloma away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.91 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ETSV Hamburg attack 2.43 + Paloma defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.17

Paloma attack 1.86 + ETSV Hamburg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ETSV Hamburg scores more
48%
level
21%
Paloma scores more
31%

ETSV Hamburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ETSV Hamburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Paloma win just 31% against the top half (vs 64% against the bottom)
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Hamburg
WWL
Paloma
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ETSV Hamburg face Paloma (Oberliga - Hamburg)

Oberliga - Hamburg returns with ETSV Hamburg hosting Paloma. Match starts March 19, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.