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Etoile S. Metlaoui vs Etoile DU Sahel — Cup 2019

Etoile S. Metlaoui
Etoile S. Metlaoui
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Sahel
O. Boughanmi 116' (pen), 64'
M. Mathnani 100'
Y. Chikhaoui 48'
3/15/2020CupCup · 8th FinalsStade Municipal de Métlaoui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Etoile S. Metlaoui9%
×Draw21%
Etoile DU Sahel70%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile S. Metlaoui
0.48
Etoile DU Sahel
1.84

Etoile DU Sahel creates 283% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Etoile S. Metlaoui
0.40
Etoile DU Sahel
1.89

allows per match

Etoile S. Metlaoui
1.80
Etoile DU Sahel
0.56

finishing

Etoile S. Metlaoui+0.00on par
Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile S. Metlaoui ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–118%
0–217%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Etoile S. Metlaoui or draw
30%
Etoile S. Metlaoui or Etoile DU Sahel
79%
Draw or Etoile DU Sahel
91%

Winning margin

Etoile S. Metlaoui wins by 2+
2%
Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Etoile S. Metlaoui 1+ goals
38%
Etoile S. Metlaoui 2+ goals
8%
Etoile S. Metlaoui 3+ goals
1%
Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
84%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
55%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Etoile S. Metlaoui (draw refunded)
11%
Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile S. Metlaoui at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile S. Metlaoui attack 0.40 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.48

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.89 + Etoile S. Metlaoui defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Etoile S. Metlaoui scores more
9%
level
21%
Etoile DU Sahel scores more
70%

Etoile DU Sahel at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
Y. Chikhaoui
64'
O. Boughanmi
100'
M. Mathnani
116'
O. BoughanmiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Etoile S. Metlaoui 1–1 Etoile DU Sahel

Etoile S. Metlaoui and Etoile DU Sahel drew 1-1 in Cup on March 15, 2020.

Goals: Y. Chikhaoui (48'), O. Boughanmi (64', 116' pen), M. Mathnani (100').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Métlaoui in Métlaoui.