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Etoile DU Sahel vs Stade Gabesien — League #202 2026

Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Sahel
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
12/24/2017League #202League #202 · Round 9Stade Olympique de Sousse (Sousse (Sūsah))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Etoile DU Sahel53%
×Draw28%
Stade Gabesien19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile DU Sahel
1.40
Stade Gabesien
0.72

Etoile DU Sahel creates 94% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 24 away

creates per match

Etoile DU Sahel
1.42
Stade Gabesien
0.75

allows per match

Etoile DU Sahel
0.69
Stade Gabesien
1.38

finishing

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile DU Sahel ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Etoile DU Sahel or draw
81%
Etoile DU Sahel or Stade Gabesien
72%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
47%

Winning margin

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
26%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
75%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
41%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
17%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
51%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
16%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
73%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile DU Sahel at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.69 · 45 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.42 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stade Gabesien attack 0.75 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Etoile DU Sahel scores more
53%
level
28%
Stade Gabesien scores more
19%

Etoile DU Sahel at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etoile DU Sahel vs Stade Gabesien

Etoile DU Sahel beat Stade Gabesien 2-0 in League #202 on December 24, 2017.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Sousse (Sousse (Sūsah)).