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Étoile du Congo vs JS Talangaï — League #844 2026

Étoile du Congo
Étoile du Congo
PST
13:00
JS Talangaï
JS Talangaï
11/8/2025League #844League #844 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Étoile du Congo47%
×Draw27%
JS Talangaï26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoile du Congo
1.43
JS Talangaï
0.98

Étoile du Congo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Étoile du Congo
1.86
JS Talangaï
1.67

allows per match

Étoile du Congo
0.29
JS Talangaï
1.00

finishing

Étoile du Congo+0.00on par
JS Talangaï+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile du Congo ↓

JS Talangaï →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Étoile du Congo or draw
74%
Étoile du Congo or JS Talangaï
73%
Draw or JS Talangaï
53%

Winning margin

Étoile du Congo wins by 2+
23%
JS Talangaï wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Étoile du Congo 1+ goals
76%
Étoile du Congo 2+ goals
42%
Étoile du Congo 3+ goals
17%
JS Talangaï 1+ goals
62%
JS Talangaï 2+ goals
26%
JS Talangaï 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Étoile du Congo (draw refunded)
65%
JS Talangaï (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile du Congo at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

JS Talangaï away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile du Congo attack 1.86 + JS Talangaï defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

JS Talangaï attack 1.67 + Étoile du Congo defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Étoile du Congo scores more
47%
level
27%
JS Talangaï scores more
26%

Étoile du Congo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Étoile du Congo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Étoile du Congo face JS Talangaï (League #844)

League #844 returns with Étoile du Congo hosting JS Talangaï. Match starts November 8, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.