Étoile du Congo vs Diables Noirs

Étoile du Congo

PST

15:00

Diables Noirs

11/23/2025

League #844 · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Étoile du Congo66%

×Draw24%

Diables Noirs9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Étoile du CongoExpected goals in this matchDiables Noirs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.40

Étoile du Congo

1.56

Diables Noirs

0.40

Étoile du Congo creates 290% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.86

creates per match

0.50

0.29

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Étoile du Congo

1.86

Diables Noirs

0.50

allows per match

Étoile du Congo

0.29

Diables Noirs

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Étoile du Congo+0.00on par

Diables Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile du Congo ↓

Diables Noirs →

0–014%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–022%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–017%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Étoile du Congo or draw

91%

Étoile du Congo or Diables Noirs

76%

Draw or Diables Noirs

34%

Winning margin

Étoile du Congo wins by 2+

37%

Diables Noirs wins by 2+

Team goals

Étoile du Congo 1+ goals

79%

Étoile du Congo 2+ goals

46%

Étoile du Congo 3+ goals

21%

Diables Noirs 1+ goals

33%

Diables Noirs 2+ goals

Diables Noirs 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Étoile du Congo (draw refunded)

88%

Diables Noirs (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Étoile du Congo at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Diables Noirs away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Étoile du Congo attack 1.86 + Diables Noirs defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Diables Noirs attack 0.50 + Étoile du Congo defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Étoile du Congo scores more

66%

level

24%

Diables Noirs scores more

Étoile du Congo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Étoile du Congo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff