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Etoile de Kivu vs Vita Club — Ligue 1 2019

Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
FT
1 – 0
Vita Club
Vita Club
10/29/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Etoile de Kivu28%
×Draw30%
Vita Club42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile de Kivu
0.90
Vita Club
1.18

Vita Club creates 31% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 93 away

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
Vita Club
1.33

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
Vita Club
0.76

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par
Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

Vita Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw
58%
Etoile de Kivu or Vita Club
70%
Draw or Vita Club
72%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
10%
Vita Club wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
59%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
23%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
6%
Vita Club 1+ goals
69%
Vita Club 2+ goals
33%
Vita Club 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
40%
Vita Club (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Vita Club attack 1.33 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more
28%
level
30%
Vita Club scores more
42%

Vita Club at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etoile de Kivu vs Vita Club

Etoile de Kivu beat Vita Club 1-0 in Ligue 1 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Concorde in Bukavu.