Etoile de Kivu 1–1 Renaissance: Result & Stats

Etoile de Kivu

FT

1 – 1

Renaissance

11/1/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Etoile de Kivu42%

×Draw30%

Renaissance28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile de KivuExpected goals in this matchRenaissance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.90

Etoile de Kivu

1.16

Renaissance

0.90

Etoile de Kivu creates 29% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 69 away

1.03

creates per match

0.77

1.03

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu

1.03

Renaissance

0.77

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu

1.03

Renaissance

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par

Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

Renaissance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw

72%

Etoile de Kivu or Renaissance

70%

Draw or Renaissance

58%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+

18%

Renaissance wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals

69%

Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals

32%

Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals

11%

Renaissance 1+ goals

59%

Renaissance 2+ goals

23%

Renaissance 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)

60%

Renaissance (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + Renaissance defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Renaissance attack 0.77 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more

42%

level

30%

Renaissance scores more

28%

Etoile de Kivu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Etoile de Kivu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff