Etoile de Kivu 1–0 JSK: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Etoile de Kivu

FT

1 – 0

JSK

1/30/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Etoile de Kivu36%

×Draw31%

JSK34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etoile de KivuExpected goals in this matchJSK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.98

Etoile de Kivu

1.02

JSK

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 81 away

1.03

creates per match

0.94

1.03

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu

1.03

JSK

0.94

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu

1.03

JSK

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par

JSK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

JSK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw

66%

Etoile de Kivu or JSK

69%

Draw or JSK

64%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+

14%

JSK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals

64%

Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals

27%

Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals

8%

JSK 1+ goals

62%

JSK 2+ goals

26%

JSK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)

52%

JSK (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

JSK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.02 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + JSK defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

JSK attack 0.94 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more

36%

level

31%

JSK scores more

34%

Etoile de Kivu at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Etoile de Kivu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff