Ethiopian Medhin vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 66+ matches
Ethiopian Medhin40%
Dire Dawa Kenema31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ethiopian Medhin creates 19% more chances
Season form · 66 home / 100 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ethiopian Medhin ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ethiopian Medhin at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 66 matches
Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.11 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18
Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Ethiopian Medhin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Ethiopian Medhin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Fasil Ketema
Mekelle Kenema
Kedus Giorgis
Sidama Bunna
Bahardar
Shire Endaselassie
Awassa Kenema
Ethiopia Bunna
Adama Kenema
Welayta Dicha
Sebeta Kenema
Wolkite KetemaDire Dawa Kenema
Jimma Aba Jifar
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Hadiya HosaenaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ethiopian Medhin host Dire Dawa Kenema on Thursday, 11 January 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Premier League: Ethiopian Medhin 1–2 Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema beat Ethiopian Medhin 2-1 in Premier League on January 11, 2024.
The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.