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Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Ethiopia Bunna — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
12/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank40%
×Draw28%
Ethiopia Bunna32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.25
Ethiopia Bunna
1.08

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.47
Ethiopia Bunna
1.11

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.04
Ethiopia Bunna
1.03

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par
Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw
68%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Ethiopia Bunna
72%
Draw or Ethiopia Bunna
60%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
18%
Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
71%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
36%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
13%
Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
66%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
29%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
56%
Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
40%
level
28%
Ethiopia Bunna scores more
32%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Ethiopia Bunna

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Ethiopia Bunna 2-1 in Premier League on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.