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Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Preview
15:45
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
8/3/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 2Ivajlo Stadion
Big match
50%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
model favours
50%26%23%

Yantra 2019 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo50%
×Draw26%
Yantra 201923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.49
Yantra 2019
0.92

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 100 away

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.77
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.89
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw
77%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Yantra 2019
74%
Draw or Yantra 2019
50%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
26%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
77%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
44%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
19%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
60%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
23%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
68%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 71 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.77 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.49

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
50%
level
26%
Yantra 2019 scores more
23%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Yantra 2019’s matches
  • 70% of Yantra 2019’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Etar Veliko Tarnovo win just 30% against the top half (vs 61% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tarnovo
WWLLL
2019
DLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Etar Veliko Tarnovo face Yantra 2019 (Second League)

Second League returns with Etar Veliko Tarnovo hosting Yantra 2019. Match starts August 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo host Yantra 2019 at Ivajlo Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.