Estudiantes S.l. 0–1 Sportivo Desamparados

Estudiantes S.l.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sportivo Desamparados

R. Tapia 35'

11/17/2019

Torneo Federal A · South - 12Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.46%

×Draw29%

Sportivo Desamparados25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes S.l.Expected goals in this matchSportivo Desamparados

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.84

Estudiantes S.l.

1.25

Sportivo Desamparados

0.84

Estudiantes S.l. creates 49% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 59 away

1.16

creates per match

0.66

1.03

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.16

Sportivo Desamparados

0.66

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.03

Sportivo Desamparados

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw

75%

Estudiantes S.l. or Sportivo Desamparados

71%

Draw or Sportivo Desamparados

54%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

21%

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

71%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

36%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

13%

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals

57%

Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals

21%

Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

65%

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 100 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.16 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.66 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

46%

level

29%

Sportivo Desamparados scores more

25%

Estudiantes S.l. at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

R. Tapia

46'

J. Calderón← B. Sosa

46'

I. Roldán← J. Echarri

57'

J. Lastra← M. García

69'

L. Poletto← R. Meyer

69'

M. Montejano← N. Sottile

78'

P. Jofré← M. Abraham

89'

Estudiantes

Sportivo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Arzubialde

46'▲J. Calderón←▼B. Sosa

46'▲I. Roldán←▼J. Echarri

69'▲L. Poletto←▼R. Meyer

Estudiantes S.l. substitutes

CalderónRoldánPoletto

Manager: V. Godoy

57'▲J. Lastra←▼M. García

69'▲M. Montejano←▼N. Sottile

78'▲P. Jofré←▼M. Abraham

Sportivo Desamparados substitutes

LastraMontejanoJofré

Match Recap: Estudiantes S.l. vs Sportivo Desamparados

Sportivo Desamparados beat Estudiantes S.l. 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 17, 2019.

Goals: R. Tapia (35').

The match was played at Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza (Ciudad de San Luis, Provincia de San Luis).

Estudiantes S.l. vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Estudiantes S.l. vs Sportivo Desamparados