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Estudiantes S.l. vs Sportivo Desamparados — Copa Argentina 2018

Estudiantes S.l.
Estudiantes S.l.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
1/24/2019Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 2nd Qualifying RoundEstadio Provincial Juan Gilberto Funes (La Punta, Provincia de San Luis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.66%
×Draw22%
Sportivo Desamparados13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes S.l.
1.86
Sportivo Desamparados
0.67

Estudiantes S.l. creates 178% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.40
Sportivo Desamparados
0.33

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.
1.00
Sportivo Desamparados
2.33

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw
87%
Estudiantes S.l. or Sportivo Desamparados
78%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
34%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+
39%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals
84%
Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals
55%
Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals
28%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
49%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
15%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)
84%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.40 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.33 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more
66%
level
22%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
13%

Estudiantes S.l. at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes S.l. vs Sportivo Desamparados

Estudiantes S.l. beat Sportivo Desamparados 1-0 in Copa Argentina on January 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Provincial Juan Gilberto Funes (La Punta, Provincia de San Luis).