Estudiantes S.l. 1–0 Ciudad de Bolívar

Estudiantes S.l.

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ciudad de Bolívar

7/2/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 19Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.38%

×Draw31%

Ciudad de Bolívar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes S.l.Expected goals in this matchCiudad de Bolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.93

Estudiantes S.l.

1.07

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.93

Estudiantes S.l. creates 15% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 78 away

1.16

creates per match

0.82

1.03

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.16

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.82

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.03

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw

69%

Estudiantes S.l. or Ciudad de Bolívar

69%

Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar

62%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

15%

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

66%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

29%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

9%

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals

61%

Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals

24%

Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

55%

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 100 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.99 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.16 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.82 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

38%

level

31%

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more

31%

Estudiantes S.l. at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff