Estudiantes S.l. 4–0 Argentino Monte Maíz

Estudiantes S.l.

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Argentino Monte Maíz

6/26/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 16Estadio Héctor Odicino Pedro Benoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Estudiantes S.l.40%

×Draw30%

Argentino Monte Maíz31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes S.l.Expected goals in this matchArgentino Monte Maíz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.98

Estudiantes S.l.

1.15

Argentino Monte Maíz

0.98

Estudiantes S.l. creates 17% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 71 away

1.16

creates per match

0.92

1.03

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.16

Argentino Monte Maíz

0.92

allows per match

Estudiantes S.l.

1.03

Argentino Monte Maíz

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Argentino Monte Maíz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes S.l. ↓

Argentino Monte Maíz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estudiantes S.l. or draw

69%

Estudiantes S.l. or Argentino Monte Maíz

70%

Draw or Argentino Monte Maíz

60%

Winning margin

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

17%

Argentino Monte Maíz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

68%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

32%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

11%

Argentino Monte Maíz 1+ goals

62%

Argentino Monte Maíz 2+ goals

26%

Argentino Monte Maíz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

56%

Argentino Monte Maíz (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes S.l. at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 100 matches

Argentino Monte Maíz away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes S.l. attack 1.16 + Argentino Monte Maíz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Argentino Monte Maíz attack 0.92 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

40%

level

30%

Argentino Monte Maíz scores more

31%

Estudiantes S.l. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estudiantes S.l. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff