Estudiantes L.P. 3–1 Union Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Estudiantes L.P.

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Union Santa Fe

2/1/2020

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 18Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.47%

×Draw28%

Union Santa Fe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes L.P.Expected goals in this matchUnion Santa Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.91

Estudiantes L.P.

1.34

Union Santa Fe

0.91

Estudiantes L.P. creates 47% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 122 away

1.35

creates per match

0.96

0.86

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.

1.35

Union Santa Fe

0.96

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.

0.86

Union Santa Fe

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.+0.00on par

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Union Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw

75%

Estudiantes L.P. or Union Santa Fe

72%

Draw or Union Santa Fe

53%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

22%

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

74%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

39%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

15%

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

60%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

23%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

65%

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

Union Santa Fe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.35 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Union Santa Fe attack 0.96 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

47%

level

28%

Union Santa Fe scores more

25%

Estudiantes L.P. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff