Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Estudiantes L.P.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Platense

G. Del Prete 20'

M. Tissera 70'

9/25/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.47%

×Draw29%

Platense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes L.P.Expected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.81

Estudiantes L.P.

1.27

Platense

0.81

Estudiantes L.P. creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

1.34

creates per match

0.73

0.90

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.

1.34

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.

0.90

Platense

1.21

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.-0.01on par

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw

76%

Estudiantes L.P. or Platense

71%

Draw or Platense

53%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

22%

Platense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

72%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

36%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

14%

Platense 1+ goals

56%

Platense 2+ goals

19%

Platense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

67%

Platense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.90 · 15 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.34 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Platense attack 0.73 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

47%

level

29%

Platense scores more

24%

Estudiantes L.P. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

I. Gómez

Platense · M

7.7

Match Events

20'

G. Del Prete↳ M. Castro

64'

J. Rodriguez

64'

M. Tissera← P. Gerzel

70'

M. Tissera↳ B. Mansilla

71'

P. Pérez← F. Baldassarra

72'

K. Lomónaco← N. Iribarren

74'

J. Ayoví← F. Apaolaza

74'

J. Sánchez← D. Ayala

76'

A. Schott

80'

F. Zapiola← M. Castro

80'

L. Díaz← M. Pellegrini

84'

B. Kociubinski← G. Del Prete

84'

H. Tijanovich← F. Curuchet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstudiantesPlatense

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots5

3Corners4

14Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots5

3On Target1

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box2

5Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

443Total Passes373

326Accurate Passes268

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Estudiantes L.P. vs Platense

Estudiantes L.P. and Platense drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 25, 2021.

Goals: G. Del Prete (20'), M. Tissera (70').

Estudiantes L.P. controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Estudiantes L.P. vs Platense