Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
CANC
20:00
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
9/30/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 31Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC49%
×Draw25%
Zulia FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.56
Zulia FC
1.07

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 66 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.51
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.08
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw
74%
Estudiantes de Merida FC or Zulia FC
75%
Draw or Zulia FC
51%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
25%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
79%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
46%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
21%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
66%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
29%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
65%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
49%
level
25%
Zulia FC scores more
26%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Zulia FC — Match Preview

Estudiantes de Merida FC face Zulia FC on September 30, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Estudiantes de Merida FC host Zulia FC at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.