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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Canc
20:00
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
6/7/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC54%
×Draw22%
Llaneros de Guanare24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Merida FC
2.00
Llaneros de Guanare
1.27

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 20 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.51
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.08
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw
76%
Estudiantes de Merida FC or Llaneros de Guanare
78%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
46%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
32%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
86%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
59%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
32%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
72%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
36%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
69%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
54%
level
22%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
24%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Estudiantes de Merida FC host Llaneros de Guanare

June 7, 2020: Estudiantes de Merida FC take on Llaneros de Guanare in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.