Estudiantes de Merida FC 1–1 Deportivo La Guaira

Estudiantes de Merida FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo La Guaira

10/18/2022

Primera División · Copa Sudamericana Play-off - 5Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC41%

×Draw27%

Deportivo La Guaira32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes de Merida FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.15

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.35

Deportivo La Guaira

1.15

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 148 away

1.51

creates per match

1.22

1.08

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.51

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.08

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw

68%

Estudiantes de Merida FC or Deportivo La Guaira

73%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

59%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals

74%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals

39%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)

56%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more

41%

level

27%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

32%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff