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Estrella vs River Plate — Division di Honor 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
River Plate
River Plate
5/21/2023Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Play-offs Kaya 6 - 10Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Estrella32%
×Draw19%
River Plate49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
2.02
River Plate
2.53

River Plate creates 25% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

creates per match

Estrella
1.70
River Plate
1.95

allows per match

Estrella
3.11
River Plate
2.33

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
51%
Estrella or River Plate
81%
Draw or River Plate
68%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
16%
River Plate wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
87%
Estrella 2+ goals
60%
Estrella 3+ goals
33%
River Plate 1+ goals
92%
River Plate 2+ goals
71%
River Plate 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
39%
River Plate (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 1.70, concedes 3.11 · 56 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 1.70 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

River Plate attack 1.95 + Estrella defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Estrella scores more
32%
level
19%
River Plate scores more
49%

River Plate at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Estrella 3–3 River Plate

Estrella and River Plate drew 3-3 in Division di Honor on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.