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Estrella vs RCA — Division di Honor 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
1 – 11
HT: 1 – 3
RCA
RCA
4/3/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 15Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Estrella16%
×Draw17%
RCA67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.33
RCA
2.80

RCA creates 111% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 68 away

creates per match

Estrella
1.70
RCA
2.50

allows per match

Estrella
3.11
RCA
0.96

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
RCA+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

RCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
33%
Estrella or RCA
83%
Draw or RCA
84%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
6%
RCA wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
74%
Estrella 2+ goals
38%
Estrella 3+ goals
15%
RCA 1+ goals
94%
RCA 2+ goals
76%
RCA 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
19%
RCA (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 1.70, concedes 3.11 · 56 matches

RCA away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.96 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 1.70 + RCA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.33

RCA attack 2.50 + Estrella defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Estrella scores more
16%
level
17%
RCA scores more
67%

RCA at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrella vs RCA

RCA beat Estrella 11-1 in Division di Honor on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.