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Estrella vs Dakota — Division di Honor 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
1 – 2
Dakota
Dakota
4/22/2023Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Play-offs Kaya 6 - 6Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Estrella13%
×Draw14%
Dakota73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.33
Dakota
3.20

Dakota creates 141% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 62 away

creates per match

Estrella
1.70
Dakota
3.29

allows per match

Estrella
3.11
Dakota
0.97

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
Dakota+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Dakota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
27%
Estrella or Dakota
86%
Draw or Dakota
87%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
5%
Dakota wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
74%
Estrella 2+ goals
38%
Estrella 3+ goals
15%
Dakota 1+ goals
96%
Dakota 2+ goals
82%
Dakota 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
15%
Dakota (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 1.70, concedes 3.11 · 56 matches

Dakota away — creates 3.29, concedes 0.97 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 1.70 + Dakota defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dakota attack 3.29 + Estrella defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 3.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Estrella scores more
13%
level
14%
Dakota scores more
73%

Dakota at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estrella vs Dakota

Dakota beat Estrella 2-1 in Division di Honor on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.