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Estoril vs Tondela — Taça de Portugal 2018

Estoril
Estoril
Pens
1 – 1
Tondela
Tondela
10/21/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Estoril37%
×Draw24%
Tondela39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.54
Tondela
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.57
Tondela
1.50

allows per match

Estoril
1.71
Tondela
1.50

finishing

Estoril+0.00on par
Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Tondela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
61%
Estoril or Tondela
76%
Draw or Tondela
63%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
18%
Tondela wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
79%
Estoril 2+ goals
45%
Estoril 3+ goals
20%
Tondela 1+ goals
80%
Tondela 2+ goals
47%
Tondela 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
48%
Tondela (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.57 + Tondela defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tondela attack 1.50 + Estoril defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Estoril scores more
37%
level
24%
Tondela scores more
39%

Tondela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Estoril 1–1 Tondela

Estoril and Tondela drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril).