Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estoril vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Moreirense
Moreirense
1/13/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 17Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Estoril36%
×Draw25%
Moreirense38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.39
Moreirense
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.29
Moreirense
1.02

allows per match

Estoril
1.84
Moreirense
1.48

finishing

Estoril+0.24scores more
Moreirense+0.07on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
62%
Estoril or Moreirense
75%
Draw or Moreirense
64%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
17%
Moreirense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
75%
Estoril 2+ goals
40%
Estoril 3+ goals
16%
Moreirense 1+ goals
76%
Moreirense 2+ goals
42%
Moreirense 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
49%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.84 · 15 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.29 + Moreirense defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Moreirense attack 1.02 + Estoril defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Estoril scores more
36%
level
25%
Moreirense scores more
38%

Moreirense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Estoril 1–3 Moreirense

Moreirense beat Estoril 3-1 in Primeira Liga on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.