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Estoril vs FC Porto — Taça de Portugal 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FC Porto
FC Portoadvanced
1/9/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Estoril17%
×Draw20%
FC Porto63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.02
FC Porto
2.13

FC Porto creates 109% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.57
FC Porto
2.54

allows per match

Estoril
1.71
FC Porto
0.46

finishing

Estoril+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
37%
Estoril or FC Porto
80%
Draw or FC Porto
83%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
6%
FC Porto wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
64%
Estoril 2+ goals
27%
Estoril 3+ goals
8%
FC Porto 1+ goals
88%
FC Porto 2+ goals
63%
FC Porto 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
22%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

FC Porto away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.57 + FC Porto defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.02

FC Porto attack 2.54 + Estoril defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Estoril scores more
17%
level
20%
FC Porto scores more
63%

FC Porto at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Estoril 0–4 FC Porto

FC Porto beat Estoril 4-0 in Taça de Portugal on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.