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Estoril vs Estrela — Primeira Liga 2018

Estoril
Estoril
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estrela
Estrela
2/4/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 20Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Estoril40%
×Draw25%
Estrela35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril
1.51
Estrela
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

creates per match

Estoril
1.29
Estrela
0.92

allows per match

Estoril
1.84
Estrela
1.73

finishing

Estoril+0.24scores more
Estrela+0.03on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Estoril or draw
65%
Estoril or Estrela
75%
Draw or Estrela
60%

Winning margin

Estoril wins by 2+
20%
Estrela wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Estoril 1+ goals
78%
Estoril 2+ goals
44%
Estoril 3+ goals
19%
Estrela 1+ goals
75%
Estrela 2+ goals
40%
Estrela 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Estoril (draw refunded)
54%
Estrela (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.84 · 15 matches

Estrela away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.73 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril attack 1.29 + Estrela defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Estrela attack 0.92 + Estoril defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estoril scores more
40%
level
25%
Estrela scores more
35%

Estoril at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Estoril 1–0 Estrela

Estoril beat Estrela 1-0 in Primeira Liga on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.