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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
1 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
12/16/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan51%
×Draw28%
Arman Gohar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.34
Arman Gohar
0.73

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 84% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 68 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.25
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
80%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Arman Gohar
72%
Draw or Arman Gohar
49%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
25%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
74%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
39%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
15%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
52%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
17%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
72%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
51%
level
28%
Arman Gohar scores more
20%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Arman Gohar

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Arman Gohar 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.