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Este vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Este
Este
PST
13:30
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
3/25/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 30Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Este33%
×Draw25%
Union Feltre42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Este
1.33
Union Feltre
1.52

Union Feltre creates 14% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 13 away

creates per match

Este
1.36
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Este
1.03
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Este+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Este or draw
58%
Este or Union Feltre
75%
Draw or Union Feltre
67%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+
15%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals
74%
Este 2+ goals
38%
Este 3+ goals
15%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
78%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
45%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)
44%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Este scores more
33%
level
25%
Union Feltre scores more
42%

Union Feltre at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Este face Union Feltre (Serie D - Girone C)

Serie D - Girone C returns with Este hosting Union Feltre. Match starts March 25, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Este host Union Feltre at Nuovo Stadio Comunale.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.